Civil Rights

 What are civil rights?  According to Britannica.com, civil rights are “guarantees of equal social opportunities and equal protection under the law, regardless of race, religion, or other personal characteristics.”  In a democratic society they include the right to vote, the right to a public education, the right to public facilities and the rule of law.  The rule of law is extremely important as it identifies checks and balances in our political system and means that every citizen governed by the law is equal under it, including government, parliament and the judiciary.

 

Now, how does this relate to COVID 19?  Well, if you live in Victoria and you haven’t noticed, we have been in lockdown in some form or another since March.  Lockdown has essentially been a massive afront to our freedoms and it is important to debate whether our civil rights have been compromised.  Every lockdown measure is a potential infringement so let’s break it down.

 

·      Denial of assembly – Right now, we are not allowed to go to anyone elses house, be in public with more than one other person or congregate in public areas.  The right to assembly is to allow for lawful protest and groups to form strategy to challenge political leadership or influence policy in a lawful manner.  This may sound a little insightful or aggressive but it happens all the time.  The federal opposition is always holding the government to account and it is critical in a free society.  Imagine how scary it would be if the opposition was deemed to be unlawful and scrutiny of the government was an offence?  

 

However, we are fighting a pandemic and the virus loves a large group of people coming together which means a suspension (not a cancellation) of gatherings is a sensible approach but we do need to see an end to it.

 

It is important though to look at this from a compassionate standpoint.  Imagine you are elderly, have a variety of health concerns, live in an aged care facility and are completely cut off from your family.  The restrictions are there to protect you but would you really care.  You would not have many days ahead of you anyway and your quality of life would also be low and to top it all off you would be cut off from your family.  On your list of priorities spending time with the ones you love would probably be the number one and this basic civil right is being denied to you.  I believe it is perfectly reasonable to postpone political and menial social gatherings, but exceptions have to be made on compassionate grounds.  That is where we are really feeling it.

 

·      Border closures and 5km exclusion – As far as the virus goes, this makes a lot of sense.  If someone is positive you know that the have not been able to spread it outside a certain area allowing easier contact tracing and containment.  However, you can’t really call it freedom if you can’t go outside a certain area.  Realistically it is a form of incarceration we afford only to criminals.  It is an infringement of rights but probably necessary. 

 

·      Face Masks – I find this one a little ironic.  People who have demanded people should not be allowed to wear face masks (like a burqa or hijab) are now insisting that we do.  Realistically, you can really only demand that if you have the right to not wear a face mask, you also have the right to wear one.  The issue is should you be forced to wear one.  My view is that if face masks supress the transmission of disease it is a small price to pay.

 

·      Curfew – This one I believe is extremely contentious.  Victorians have had to be back inside their homes by 8.00pm.  This has also meant that everything that is allowed to stay open (which isn’t much) has had to shut at 7.45pm.  Granted, there isn’t much reason for most of us to be out but there is for some.  

 

I know a guy in the public service that has a critically important job.  He is a widower with two kids 16 and 10.  During the day when his kids are normally at school the 16 year old has had to look after the younger one.  Lockdown has meant his support network of family and friends is not available and as a result he has to do everything himself.  Normally he would try to get home from work, help the kids with homework etc, cook dinner maintain the household and when his youngest was in bed he’d do the groceries about 9.00pm.  Now he has to do the groceries on the way home from work meaning there is little to no time for his kids, he is exhausted and has no support.

 

What is most unsettling about this is why we even have a curfew?  It has come to light that it was not recommended by the chief health officer, nor did the police request it.  The premier has been uncompromising and unmoved on this issue and when it comes to the curfew has certainly earned his title of dictator Dan.

 

·      One hour out – Another controversial decision is that Melbournians are only allowed one hour outside every day.  Now this is okay if you have a big house with a garden but what if you live in a unit or apartment.  You can only get one hour of fresh air a day.  You know who else gets one hour of fresh air a day?  US death row inmates.

 

·      Denial of basic services – For the most part, essential services like water, power, garbage collection etc. have been maintained but other nonessential services, such as childcare, libraries and community services have been sadly lacking.  There was also the case where after some nasty weather, certain suburbs of Melbourne were left without fresh water and power for days.  Nothing was done to help the affected people.  At the very least, certain restrictions should have been eased so family members could help those in trouble and people could access safe drinking water and cooked food.  Every effort also should have been made to get the services back.  I cannot believe that in todays Australia while Victoria is in a state of emergency it took four days to fix the problem.  Completely unacceptable.

 

·      The right to health and safety – This is the right that the government dangles in our face to justify the lockdown.  Don’t get me wrong, it is extremely important but could be debated for centuries.  Public health and safety is the reason we have speed limits on our roads or smoking bans in our pubs and restaurants.  At the end of the day everyone has a different opinion and who is right is a question that will never be answered.  It is really easy to sit at home, be bored and complain about the lockdown but the 26 thousand+ people and the families of the 816 who have passed away due to the disease would probably think very differently.

 

The big question is what should we do?  Whether we agree with the lockdown or not, we all need to follow the rules.  We live in a democratic society and any adult has the right to run for office and be involved with the decision making.  We also voted for the decision makers so you have to respect their decisions and if you don’t like it, vote them out at the next election.  It is critical that everyone is compliant because the worst thing we could possibly do is whatever we want.  If everyone did whatever they wanted we would have a massive infection rate, deaths in the thousands and a health care system that would have been pushed past the breaking point and given that the Victorian government has displayed a huge lack of preparedness that would probably be much closer than you think.

 

I think there is one more thing Dan Andrews could do now.  After all, he has claimed responsibility and he is the one that has instituted all the rules that have attacked the very fabric of our freedom and given himself massive powers to do what is necessary by implementing a state of emergency for at least nine months.  His nickname “Dictator Dan” is justified and right now we don’t know when his reign is going to end.  He needs to confirm that once the crisis is over he will resign as premiere.  He has stated that he will not contest the next election, but that is over two years away.  If he resigns immediately after the crisis abates it will confirm that his motives are purely to see out the pandemic and not rule over Victoria with an iron fist.

 

It’s up to you Dictator Dan.

 

Stay well

Opportunity Cost

Opportunity cost.  For those of you who have never studied economics you’re probably wondering what is opportunity cost?  And no, it is not some shopping styled reality game show.  Wikipedia defines it as “when an option is chosen from alternatives, the opportunity cost is the "cost" incurred by not enjoying the benefit associated with the best alternative choice.”  In terms of COVID 19, we have to ask what is the cost of this hard lockdown?

 It is a very hard question to answer as trying to predict what would have happened given different choices is like trying to predict the future, and the opportunity cost is far more than just an economic one.  I will list a few of the costs but this list is by no means exhaustive and if you feel like I missed something important, let me know in the comments.

The first cost is mental health.  Australia, and in particular Victoria, has had a massive cost of lockdown.  According to a report released by University of Sydney’s Brain and Mind Centre Australia will have a minimum increase in suicide rate of 13.7% for the next five years. But the problem will go far further than that.  We will also see a marked increase of the amount of people who will need to be treated for depression, anxiety and other mental health disorders and still it goes further.

 

People don’t talk much at the moment and not just because of the restrictions, there is nothing to talk about.  Everybody is bored and miserable and there is nothing to look forward to.  This will lead to in household conflict, family disfunction and domestic violence and the damage could take a generation to fix.

 

Secondly is simply just health.  Elective surgeries have been postponed indefinitely.  This may sound okay, but those elective surgeries aren’t going away and it’s not like the list of people needing surgery is simply going to stagnate.  It’s going to get bigger and people are simply going to have to wait longer and the wait isn’t like waiting for uber eats.  Many of these people will be in pain or discomfort, having to take medications just to get through the day.  It goes further than that too.  The longer people wait, the more chance a minor surgery will turn into a major surgery. 

 

People are also delaying seeing the doctor for minor ailments as well which could lead to big problems later.  For example, I recently went to the dermatologist because I had a mole I was concerned about (don’t worry, it was nothing) but whilst I was talking to the doctor I asked if she was busy at the moment.  The answer was no, not at all.  In fact, appointments were down about 30% with people waiting for lockdown to finish.  I found this concerning.  A mole can go for something easily treatable by a small procedure to something that will kill you in weeks, comfortably less than the lockdown period.  I also heard that some important hospital wards, including bone marrow transplant wards, were either closed down or working on diminished capacity.

 

Third is the sacrifices of life.  Right now, forget going on holiday if you live in Victoria.  You can’t even go out to the movies, for dinner or even see friends.  Personally, I haven’t seen my mother in eight months and that hurts.  Even the most introverted and cautious of us have a need for human interaction and an element of curiosity.  As humans it is built into our DNA and to deny it is retard our development and our progression through life.  

 

Forth, the economy.  For the first time in almost 30 years, Australia is in a recession.  Not just any recession, this recession is set to be one of the biggest in history and there is no way to sugar coat it.  It is going to hurt and that’s a fact, but how much is the question.  The longer we are in lockdown, the bigger the problem is going to be so there is a massive opportunity cost of lockdown.  The issue is we know what the cost of the virus is.  There is a very real cost in terms of sickness and death.  The economic cost is much harder to quantify.  The harder our economy is hit, the harder it will be to respond to other issues that may arise in the future.  We do not know what these issues will be but I can guarantee you, we will have them.  For example, it may impact our ability to respond to future bushfire crises or upscale aged care facilities to allow Australians a higher quality of living during their twilight years.  These issues will also cost lives but the number is impossible to quantify.

 

The economic opportunity cost also highlights by the massive disconnect in our political system.  Right now we have six state and two territory governments calling the shots and a federal government paying for it.  See the problem?  State governments are all about defeating the virus, consequences be damned.  On the other side we have a federal government worried about how the hell are we going to pay for it and how we are going to emerge from the backside of this pandemic.  No matter what, it is going to take us years to pay it back and no matter what the states do now I guarantee you it is not going to stop the states crying poor and ask the federal government for money in the future.  There is an easy answer to this.  100% responsibility and accountability lying with the federal government.  It is logical, pragmatic and cost effective.  Most importantly it is democratic.  Everyone in Australia has voted for the federal government, yet a state like Queensland is making decisions that effect the rest of Australia, yet the rest of Australia didn’t get a say in the Queensland government.  Annastacia Palaszczuk, your arrogant, politically narcissistic and self-absorbed behaviour would better serve Australia if you were on the dole.  Keeping your borders closed is crippling Australia for your own political gain.

 

Lastly, I believe that the lockdown is sacrificing our values.  It is unaustralian to lock ourselves away and not help.  States like Queensland have simply closed their borders as if to say “Bugger off the rest of you, we’re okay and the rest of you can suffer.  Oh and whilst we’re at it we’ll steel your grand final and pretend we’re doing you a favour.”  Annastacia Palaszczuk, you might say you’re here to help and you’ll do what you can and you feel for Victoria but we’re not buying your political rhetoric.  

 

On a micro scale we have also been forced to sacrifice our values.  Last week Victoria was hit with gale force winds. Many suburbs were left without power and water for days, including my in-laws.  My in-laws are also old school so they do not have internet or a mobile phone.  They were isolated and we could not go and check on them because they were outside of our 5km exclusion zone.  We had a choice, do what is right and go and help or obey the rules and let them fend for themselves all alone.  The problem was sorted out eventually and I’m not going to tell you how.  

 

I’ll also give you a macro example.  California is currently experiencing bush fires and they have asked Australia for help.  All the states have been very limited in their response citing COVID19 as the reason.  Victoria is not sending anyone.  Sure, there is an added danger and complication but is that a reason to sacrifice our values?  Are we going to turn our back on helping just because we’re scared of COVID?  The firemen we would send would be fit and healthy individuals who would be at a minimal risk of COVID and each of them would know the risks and have the right to say no.  But, I guarantee you that they wouldn’t because unlike government that can turn there back on Australian values, individual Australians wouldn’t, it’s simply not in our nature.  Sending people to California would also have no impact on our own COVID response and people that went would simply need to quarantine when they got home.  To compromise our values is akin to selling our soul to the devil.

 

Until next time,

 

Stay well

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Best?

In my last post, I gave Daniel Andrews and the Victorian government a scathing rebuke of their handling of hotel quarantine.  Honestly, it was justified but I could have forgiven them for that if that was where the mistakes ended.  I mean, the NSW government led by Premier Gladys Berejiklian, severely bungled the Ruby Princess cruise ship outbreak but since then I believe their response to the pandemic has been the best in the country as they have managed small outbreaks effectively whilst keeping the economy open.  In stark contrast, the Victorian government kept making mistakes which only exacerbated the problem.

In this post I will outline what I believe is the biggest mistake made so far and relates to the heading, “Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Best?”  I know, everyone knows the saying is hope for the best but prepare for the worst but that is not what we did.  Before we went into the first lockdown Australia got lucky.  We knew what was going on in China but we were not sure how it was going to go spreading to other countries.  Australia could have easily got stung by this as we have direct flights to and from China and if we had been the first country to get badly hit we would be facing huge repercussions.  But, the virus chose Italy and Spain and we had the benefit of going into our first lockdown whilst the problem was relatively small.

And from there we enjoyed what seemed like the governments one and only weapon against COVID 19.  Lockdown.  For the best part of 3 months we stayed home, binged on Netflix and got fat whilst COVID cases diminished and we awaited freedom.  Doing what the Victorian government had instructed.  Little did we know, the Victorian government was leading by example and also doing nothing.

The government had three months to prepare for the worst and I actually got to experience first hand how badly they had failed.  Back in May, I personally knew two people who had been tested for COVID19.  Both results came back negative, within 24 hours.  Fast forward a month and Victoria is suddenly faced with the second wave.  Testing is ramped up and the government is congratulating itself on how many tests are getting done.  There is just one problem.  It took far longer than 24 hours to get the results back.

Now, how did I manage to experience this first hand?  Well, back in June one of my sons teachers had been tested for COVID19 and that test had come back positive.  My son was a close contact.  I do not know when the teacher was tested so I do not know how long he had to wait for his results.  What I do know is that my sons contact with the teacher happened on a Thursday.  We understand the school was informed on a Monday.  The school informed us via email that night but we didn’t read the email until Tuesday and we were not informed by the authorities until Wednesday.  If the school had not informed us we could have been letting my son interact with society for six whole days whilst being infected.  48 of these hours were since the teacher was confirmed positive.

Anyway, my son seemed remarkably nonplussed which was good but I was frantic.  What if he was positive?  What if he’s infected others? What if the rest of the family get it?  What if… What if… What if…  I had hundreds of questions and I had to wait over a day to get answers.  I also started trying to contact trace my sons whereabouts.  In the four days he had before notification, he had hung out with friends both in and out of school.  He had seen his grandparents and aunt and uncle.  I had taken him to have his hair cut and taken him for a hot chocolate and we also went to the supermarket.  If you think about it, that is only just more than one thing a day and if I remove his school friends from the equation that could be as many as 30 close contacts.  Anyway, I cannot say how long the gears were turning before our notification but I do know that the official contact tracing took two days.  This is way to long.  It needed to be the same day but this is not where the story ends.  

As soon as we find out that was son was a close contact we took him to get tested.  That happened on the Tuesday.  As he was a close contact we were told his result would be prioritised.  We got his “priority” results five days later.  Five days of worry.  Five days of concern.  Five days his close contacts could be running around the state unknowingly spreading the virus.  Luckily, the test came back negative.

One month later, I developed a sore throat.  Normally I’d think nothing of it but given the pandemic and the instructions from the authorities I went and got tested.  When I got there they simply told me that the results would take five days.  In five days my result came back negative.

My question is during the first lockdown we had three months to prepare.  Three months to streamline contact tracing protocols.  Three months to ramp up testing so why do our capabilities seem almost exactly the same on day one of the pandemic as they do now? In the absence of a vaccine or any effective medical treatment quick, accurate testing and fast, effective contact tracing should be our first weapon against the virus.  Instead it seems to be a strict lockdown that attacks our economy, our freedom and our civil rights that is our only effective measure against COVID19 in Victoria.

You might say though that staying ahead of the contact tracing is too difficult.  I’ll grant you, it is hard.  Even with 24 hour turnaround on testing contact tracers seem to always be chasing their tail but it is possible.  NSW have been effectively managing a small number of cases for weeks without letting it get out of control.  If the most populous state with the largest city can do it then why can’t Victoria?

Until next time, stay well :)

Ps.  Why does testing even need to be 24 hours?  Why can’t we get a test done in an hour or less?  How much easier would that make it for contact tracers?  As it happens, the Hunter Medical Research Institute are close to just that so why aren’t governments supporting it?  I will talk about this more when I give you my thought on the COVID19 vaccine.