Opportunity cost. For those of you who have never studied economics you’re probably wondering what is opportunity cost? And no, it is not some shopping styled reality game show. Wikipedia defines it as “when an option is chosen from alternatives, the opportunity cost is the "cost" incurred by not enjoying the benefit associated with the best alternative choice.” In terms of COVID 19, we have to ask what is the cost of this hard lockdown?
The first cost is mental health. Australia, and in particular Victoria, has had a massive cost of lockdown. According to a report released by University of Sydney’s Brain and Mind Centre Australia will have a minimum increase in suicide rate of 13.7% for the next five years. But the problem will go far further than that. We will also see a marked increase of the amount of people who will need to be treated for depression, anxiety and other mental health disorders and still it goes further.
People don’t talk much at the moment and not just because of the restrictions, there is nothing to talk about. Everybody is bored and miserable and there is nothing to look forward to. This will lead to in household conflict, family disfunction and domestic violence and the damage could take a generation to fix.
Secondly is simply just health. Elective surgeries have been postponed indefinitely. This may sound okay, but those elective surgeries aren’t going away and it’s not like the list of people needing surgery is simply going to stagnate. It’s going to get bigger and people are simply going to have to wait longer and the wait isn’t like waiting for uber eats. Many of these people will be in pain or discomfort, having to take medications just to get through the day. It goes further than that too. The longer people wait, the more chance a minor surgery will turn into a major surgery.
People are also delaying seeing the doctor for minor ailments as well which could lead to big problems later. For example, I recently went to the dermatologist because I had a mole I was concerned about (don’t worry, it was nothing) but whilst I was talking to the doctor I asked if she was busy at the moment. The answer was no, not at all. In fact, appointments were down about 30% with people waiting for lockdown to finish. I found this concerning. A mole can go for something easily treatable by a small procedure to something that will kill you in weeks, comfortably less than the lockdown period. I also heard that some important hospital wards, including bone marrow transplant wards, were either closed down or working on diminished capacity.
Third is the sacrifices of life. Right now, forget going on holiday if you live in Victoria. You can’t even go out to the movies, for dinner or even see friends. Personally, I haven’t seen my mother in eight months and that hurts. Even the most introverted and cautious of us have a need for human interaction and an element of curiosity. As humans it is built into our DNA and to deny it is retard our development and our progression through life.
Forth, the economy. For the first time in almost 30 years, Australia is in a recession. Not just any recession, this recession is set to be one of the biggest in history and there is no way to sugar coat it. It is going to hurt and that’s a fact, but how much is the question. The longer we are in lockdown, the bigger the problem is going to be so there is a massive opportunity cost of lockdown. The issue is we know what the cost of the virus is. There is a very real cost in terms of sickness and death. The economic cost is much harder to quantify. The harder our economy is hit, the harder it will be to respond to other issues that may arise in the future. We do not know what these issues will be but I can guarantee you, we will have them. For example, it may impact our ability to respond to future bushfire crises or upscale aged care facilities to allow Australians a higher quality of living during their twilight years. These issues will also cost lives but the number is impossible to quantify.
The economic opportunity cost also highlights by the massive disconnect in our political system. Right now we have six state and two territory governments calling the shots and a federal government paying for it. See the problem? State governments are all about defeating the virus, consequences be damned. On the other side we have a federal government worried about how the hell are we going to pay for it and how we are going to emerge from the backside of this pandemic. No matter what, it is going to take us years to pay it back and no matter what the states do now I guarantee you it is not going to stop the states crying poor and ask the federal government for money in the future. There is an easy answer to this. 100% responsibility and accountability lying with the federal government. It is logical, pragmatic and cost effective. Most importantly it is democratic. Everyone in Australia has voted for the federal government, yet a state like Queensland is making decisions that effect the rest of Australia, yet the rest of Australia didn’t get a say in the Queensland government. Annastacia Palaszczuk, your arrogant, politically narcissistic and self-absorbed behaviour would better serve Australia if you were on the dole. Keeping your borders closed is crippling Australia for your own political gain.
Lastly, I believe that the lockdown is sacrificing our values. It is unaustralian to lock ourselves away and not help. States like Queensland have simply closed their borders as if to say “Bugger off the rest of you, we’re okay and the rest of you can suffer. Oh and whilst we’re at it we’ll steel your grand final and pretend we’re doing you a favour.” Annastacia Palaszczuk, you might say you’re here to help and you’ll do what you can and you feel for Victoria but we’re not buying your political rhetoric.
On a micro scale we have also been forced to sacrifice our values. Last week Victoria was hit with gale force winds. Many suburbs were left without power and water for days, including my in-laws. My in-laws are also old school so they do not have internet or a mobile phone. They were isolated and we could not go and check on them because they were outside of our 5km exclusion zone. We had a choice, do what is right and go and help or obey the rules and let them fend for themselves all alone. The problem was sorted out eventually and I’m not going to tell you how.
I’ll also give you a macro example. California is currently experiencing bush fires and they have asked Australia for help. All the states have been very limited in their response citing COVID19 as the reason. Victoria is not sending anyone. Sure, there is an added danger and complication but is that a reason to sacrifice our values? Are we going to turn our back on helping just because we’re scared of COVID? The firemen we would send would be fit and healthy individuals who would be at a minimal risk of COVID and each of them would know the risks and have the right to say no. But, I guarantee you that they wouldn’t because unlike government that can turn there back on Australian values, individual Australians wouldn’t, it’s simply not in our nature. Sending people to California would also have no impact on our own COVID response and people that went would simply need to quarantine when they got home. To compromise our values is akin to selling our soul to the devil.
Until next time,
Stay well
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